The World Bank raised its South Asia GDP forecast to 6.4% in 2024 from 6.0% previously, citing strong domestic demand in India and faster recovery in crisis-hit countries such as Sri Lanka and Pakistan. India's economic growth forecast for the current fiscal year, which ends in March 2025, has been upgraded to 7% year on year, up from 6.6% in April, boosted by a rebound in agricultural output and higher private consumption. On Wednesday, India's central bank maintained its GDP growth prediction of 7.2% for the current fiscal year and changed its policy stance to neutral.
Top 3 Leads Today
- Economists caution on RBI's growth optimism, project FY25 growth below 7.2%.
- MF industry sees net outflows in Sept driven by debt funds, AMFI data shows.
- TCS Jul-Sept consol net profit ₹119.09 billion vs ₹120.40 billion quarter ago.
Indian Markets
- Money Markets Minute: The rate fell below the RBI's 6.25% SDF rate due to ample liquidity and low demand for funds from banks. Despite this, the weighted average call rate remained steady at 6.43%.
- Government Bond Brief: Yields rose slightly as traders sold part of their portfolios ahead of Friday's gilt auction. The 7.10%, 2034 gilt ended with a 6.78% yield, up from 6.77% on Wednesday. Turnover dropped to ₹630.40 billion from ₹1.22 trillion the previous day.
- Corporate Bond Beat: Muted activity in the corporate bond market kept yields steady, as investors held back due to a lack of major domestic cues. After a 2-3 basis point drop following the RBI's policy shift on Wednesday, bonds traded within a narrow range. Deals totalled ₹80.82 billion, down from ₹134.99 billion on Wednesday.
- Forex Flash: The rupee ended flat against the dollar, as the RBI's strong intervention offset pressure from a rising dollar index and oil companies' dollar purchases. It closed at 83.9675 per dollar, just shy of its record low of 83.9900, and nearly unchanged from its previous close of 83.9625. The currency traded within a narrow 4-paise range throughout the day.
- Stocks Spotlight: Indices ended slightly higher, supported by strong gains in banking and financial stocks, though further gains were limited by losses in IT and pharmaceutical sectors. The Nifty 50 rose 0.1% to 24,998.45 points, while the Sensex gained 0.2% to close at 81,611.41 points.
International Markets
- US Stocks: The benchmark indices dipped as investors looked to higher-than-expected inflation and unemployment claims for US economic health and interest rate direction. The rate-sensitive real estate index was the poorest of the 11 major S&P sectors, ending down but off session lows. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% monthly and 2.4% annually in September, exceeding economists' expectations. In another report released Thursday, unemployment claims rose to 258,000 for the week ending October 5, from 230,000 estimated. Dow Jones declined 0.14% to 42,454.12, S&P 500 down 0.21% to 5,780.05, and Nasdaq fell 0.05% to 18,282.05.
- Treasuries: Yields rose for longer term notes in volatile trading on Thursday as investors considered the Federal Reserve's interest rate path following economic data and remarks from central bank officials. US consumer prices climbed slightly more than predicted in September due to rising food prices, but the annual gain was the lowest in more than three and half year. The benchmark the US 10-year yields rose 0.4 basis point to 4.071%, while 2-year note yields declined 5.6 basis points to 3.962%.
- Currency: On Thursday, the US dollar declined versus the yen as investors considered data indicating a sluggish labour market and a minor increase in consumer prices, which suggested that the Federal Reserve would probably keep lowering interest rates. The dollar fell 0.38% to 148.66 yen after reaching 149.58 yen for the first time since Aug. 2. However, the dollar index, which compares the greenback to six major currencies, rose 0.07% to 102.96 in volatile trade.
Trading Trends
Traded volume(in Cr) in corporate bonds by sector and maturity:
| Sectors | 0-1y | 1-3y | 3-5y | 5-10y | >10y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financial Institution | 120 | 1602 | 1135 | 376 | - |
| NBFC | 471 | 771 | 537 | 177 | 65 |
| Housing Finance Company | 100 | 107 | 280 | 29 | 1 |
| Private Sector Bank | 5 | 211 | 155 | 2 | - |
| Telecom | - | 365 | - | 5 | - |
Secondary trade details for recently issued primary corporate bonds:
Security Name |
Issue Date |
Trades Since Issue(Cr) |
Avg Yield(%) |
LTY (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.78 MUTHOOT FIN 04OCT29 | 2024-10-04 | 590 | 8.77 | 8.77 |
| 13.83 SHREM AJANTA INFRASTRUCTURE PRIVATE LIMITED 26SEP2027 | 2024-09-26 | 486 | 13.83 | 13.83 |
| 8.01 M&M FINANCE 24DEC27 | 2024-09-26 | 255 | 8.00 | 8.01 |
| 7.49 BOI 26SEP29 C 26SEP34 M | 2024-09-26 | 207 | 7.51 | 7.42 |
| 7.56 BAJAJ HOUSING 04OCT34 | 2024-10-04 | 176 | 7.56 | 7.56 |
| 9.35 ADANI AIRPORT 08SEP28 | 2024-10-01 | 125 | 9.76 | 9.76 |
| 10.30 INDOSTAR CAPITAL 25SEP27 | 2024-09-25 | 124 | 10.64 | 10.85 |
| 10.15 SAMMAAN CAPITAL LIMITED 25SEP2029 | 2024-09-25 | 105 | 10.20 | 10.08 |
| 10.80 WHIZDM FINANCE PRIVATE LIMITED 31MAR2026 | 2024-09-30 | 80 | 12.02 | 12.00 |
| 9.90 SAMMAAN CAPITAL LIMITED 25SEP2027 | 2024-09-25 | 75 | 10.10 | 9.90 |
| 8.47 BOBCARD LIMITED PERP 30SEP2034 CALL | 2024-09-30 | 75 | 8.46 | 8.46 |
| 10.90 EARLYSALARY 27MAR26 | 2024-09-30 | 70 | 12.53 | 12.94 |
| 7.96 EMBASSY OFFICE PARK REIT 27SEP27 | 2024-09-26 | 50 | 7.95 | 7.95 |
| 7.78 KMPL 17SEP29 | 2024-10-04 | 50 | 7.78 | 7.78 |
Source: Harmoney data analytics
Events This Week
October 11, Friday:
- US PPI for September.
- India FX reserves for Oct 4 week.
- India Industrial production for August.
- India Manufacturing production for August.
For any inquiries or assistance related to market data, please reach out to us at support@harmoney.in