India's trade deficit soared to an all-time high of $37.8 billion in November, driven by a sharp rise in merchandise imports, particularly a 4.3-fold increase in gold shipments, as per commerce department data. Imports surged 27% to nearly $70 billion, marking a record level for the month. In contrast, exports fell by 4.8% to a 25-month low of $32.1 billion, following strong 17% year-on-year growth in October, which was likely due to inventory stocking by Western markets ahead of the Christmas season.
Top 3 Leads Today
- India December flash composite PMI rises to 4-month high led by services.
- Record high imports push India's Nov trade gap to all-time high
- Nomura projects India's GDP growth to slow to 5.8% in 2025, down from 6.5% in 2024.
Indian Markets
- Money Markets Minute: The rate ended at 6.70% on Monday, close to the RBI's marginal standing facility rate of 6.75%, due to increased demand for funds amid tax outflows. The weighted average call money rate stood at 6.70%, slightly higher than 6.68% in the previous session.
- Government Bond Brief: Yields rose, tracking an overnight rise in US yields ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting. The 10-year benchmark 6.79%, 2034 bond yield ended at 6.74%, up from 6.73% on Friday. Turnover fell sharply to ₹216.35 billion, from ₹464.25 billion on Friday.
- Corporate Bond Beat: Yields on corporate bonds remained steady on Monday due to a lack of fresh domestic and global triggers. On Friday, yields had risen by 3-4 basis points due to mutual funds’ redemption pressure from advance tax outflows. Trading volume totalled ₹55.22 billion on Monday, up from ₹37.22 billion on Friday.
- Forex Flash: The rupee closed at a record low of 84.8625 against the dollar on Monday, pressured by bank purchases for importers, weakness in Asian currencies ahead of the US Federal Reserve meeting, and a decline in domestic equities. During the session, it traded in a narrow 9-paise range, hitting an intraday low of 84.8725, after closing at 84.7875 on Friday.
- Stocks Spotlight: Indices ended lower on Monday as the Nifty slipped below 24,700 due to selling pressure in IT, metal, oil & gas, and FMCG stocks. Gains in realty, PSU banks, and media sectors limited further losses. Investor caution ahead of key central bank rate announcements, including from the Fed, and muted global cues weighed on sentiment. The Sensex fell 0.47% to 81,748.57, while the Nifty closed 0.40% lower at 24,668.25.
International Markets
- US Stocks: Were mixed, with the S&P 500 rising 0.38% to 6,074.12 and the Nasdaq Composite gaining 1.24% to 20,173.89, driven by megacap tech stocks. This uptick is attributed to investor optimism ahead of the Federal Reserve's anticipated 25 basis point rate cut during its final 2024 meeting. Bitcoin also surged to a new high, exceeding $106,000, following President-elect Donald Trump's suggestion of establishing a strategic bitcoin reserve.
- Treasuries: Yields remained steady ahead of the Federal Reserve's anticipated 25 basis point rate cut during its final meeting of the year. The yield on 10-year notes fell to 4.395%, from 4.399% late on Friday. The 2-year note yield, which is more sensitive to Fed’s rate moves, rose to 4.243%, from 4.241% Friday.
- Currency: The US dollar hovered near three-week highs as investors anticipated the Federal Reserve might signal a slower pace of rate cuts next year. The dollar index edged slightly lower by 0.01% to 106.86, while the euro rose 0.07% to $1.0509. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar gained 0.31% to reach 154.13. Meanwhile, Bitcoin, which has surged over 50% since the U.S. presidential election, hit a fresh record above $106,000.
Trading Trends
Traded volume(in Cr) in corporate bonds by sector and maturity:
| Sectors | 0-1y | 1-3y | 3-5y | 5-10y | >10y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBFC | 110 | 695 | 309 | 314 | 140 |
| Financial Institution | 20 | 50 | 306 | 4 | - |
| Civil Construction | - | - | - | 300 | - |
| Private Sector Bank | 177 | 0 | 44 | 8 | - |
| Diversified | - | - | - | 200 | - |
Secondary trade details for recently issued primary corporate bonds:
Security Name |
Issue Date |
Trades Since Issue(Cr) |
Avg Yield(%) |
LTY (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.23 DME DEVELOPMENT LIMITED 11DEC2034 | 2024-12-11 | 300 | 7.36 | 7.36 |
| 7.92 INDIA INFRADEBT LIMITED 06JUN2030 | 2024-12-06 | 273 | 7.93 | 7.90 |
| 9.35 TELANGANA STATE INDUSTRIAL INFRASTRUCTURE CORPORATION LIMITED 31DEC2030 | 2024-12-06 | 231 | 9.47 | 9.10 |
| 9.35 TELANGANA STATE INDUSTRIAL INFRASTRUCTURE CORPORATION LIMITED 31DEC2029 | 2024-12-06 | 225 | 9.48 | 9.10 |
| 7.78 SUNDARAM HOME FINANCE 02FEB28 | 2024-12-02 | 140 | 7.79 | 7.79 |
| 9.35 TELANGANA STATE INDUSTRIAL INFRASTRUCTURE CORPORATION LIMITED 24NOV2034 | 2024-12-06 | 136 | 9.66 | 9.10 |
| 9.80 IIFL FINANCE - C 03DEC26 M | 2024-12-03 | 136 | 10.64 | 10.16 |
| 9.35 TELANGANA STATE INDUSTRIAL INFRASTRUCTURE CORPORATION LIMITED 30DEC2033 | 2024-12-06 | 123 | 9.66 | 9.68 |
| 9.35 TELANGANA STATE INDUSTRIAL INFRASTRUCTURE CORPORATION LIMITED 31DEC2027 | 2024-12-06 | 117 | 9.61 | 9.10 |
| 9.35 TELANGANA STATE INDUSTRIAL INFRASTRUCTURE CORPORATION LIMITED 29DEC2028 | 2024-12-06 | 117 | 9.67 | 9.10 |
| 7.7215 BAJAJ FIN 26MAR27 | 2024-12-10 | 115 | 7.75 | 7.75 |
| 9.35 TELANGANA STATE INDUSTRIAL INFRASTRUCTURE CORPORATION LIMITED 31DEC2032 | 2024-12-06 | 113 | 9.65 | 9.10 |
| 9.35 TELANGANA STATE INDUSTRIAL INFRASTRUCTURE CORPORATION LIMITED 31DEC2031 | 2024-12-06 | 109 | 9.67 | 9.10 |
| 10.97 HELLA INFRA MARKET LIMITED 06JUN2026 | 2024-12-06 | 72 | 14.40 | 17.75 |
| 11.25 INDEL MONEY 06APR26 | 2024-12-06 | 67 | 12.64 | 13.09 |
| 7.93 NIIF 05DEC30 | 2024-12-02 | 67 | 7.92 | 7.93 |
| 8.92 CHOLA 02DEC34 | 2024-12-02 | 50 | 8.91 | 8.91 |
Source: Harmoney data analytics
Events This Week
December 17, Tuesday:
- US Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services for November.
- US Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for November.
- US Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
December 18, Wednesday:
- US International Transactions for Q3.
- US New Residential Construction for November.
- US Federal Reserve economic projections.
- US Interest rate decision.
December 19, Thursday:
- US 3rd estimate GDP for Q3.
- US Revised Corporate Profits for Q3.
- US Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report for Dec 14 week.
- US Weekly Export Sales.
- US Existing Home Sales for November.
December 20, Friday:
- US State Quarterly Personal Income for Q3.
- US GDP by State for Q3.
- US State Employment and Unemployment for November.
- India FX Reserves for Dec 9 week.
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