India's economic growth is likely to accelerate in the current quarter following a dip in July-September, the country's central bank said in its monthly bulletin on Wednesday, citing a comeback in private consumption during the festive season. The Reserve Bank of India expects third-quarter GDP growth of 7.6%, up from 6.7% in the second quarter. Following the October retail inflation jump, the RBI's state of the economy report warned that rising prices, if unchecked, would weaken real-economy prospects, while also cautioning about the spillover effect of rising food prices on headline inflation and stating that the increase in core inflation is a 'concern'.
Top 3 Leads Today
- Gold gains for third consecutive day on escalating Russia-Ukraine tensions.
- SEBI proposes sweeping upgrade of pre-listing, post-listing norms for SMEs.
- Growth likely to have slowed in Q2 but no significant downside risk to FY25 projections: DEA.
Indian Markets
Financial markets were closed on Wednesday for Maharashtra’s state assembly elections.
- Money Markets Minute: The call rate ended below the RBI's standing deposit facility rate of 6.25% on Tuesday as demand for funds eased. The two-day call money rate settled at 5.75%, unchanged from Monday’s close for one-day loans. The weighted average call rate was 6.50%, slightly higher than the 6.43% recorded on Monday.
- Government Bond Brief: Yields edged lower on Tuesday, though gains were limited as caution prevailed following Russian President Vladimir Putin's approval of changes to the country’s nuclear policy amid rising tensions with the US over Ukraine. The benchmark 7.10%, 2034 bond ended at a yield of 6.85%, down from 6.86% on Monday. Market turnover rose to ₹352.75 billion from ₹239.55 billion in the previous session.
- Corporate Bond Beat: Yields on corporate bonds remained steady across tenures in the secondary market on Tuesday, with most activity focused on the primary market. The total value of deals recorded on exchanges stood at ₹79.84 billion, up from ₹64.19 billion on Monday.
- Forex Flash: The rupee closed at a record low against the dollar on Tuesday, pressured by dollar purchases from banks on behalf of foreign portfolio investors and importers. It settled at 84.4150 per dollar, after touching an all-time low of 84.4200 during the final moments of trading. This marked a decline from Monday’s close of 84.3850 per dollar.
- Stocks Spotlight: Markets gave up most of Tuesday’s gains after reports of Ukraine attacking Russia raised concerns about an escalation in the conflict. A short-covering rally in the first half of the day lost momentum as worries over rising tensions grew. The Nifty 50 closed at 23,518.50, up 0.3%, while the Sensex ended at 77,578.38, also up 0.3%.
International Markets
- US Stocks: The benchmark indexes ended mixed on Wednesday. The tech-heavy Nasdaq closed down, reversing the previous session's rise as investors worried about rising Russia-Ukraine tensions and dismal Target results. Nvidia's stock fell 0.4% in post-market trade following the AI giant's fourth-quarter sales forecast, which was mostly in line with analyst projections. The Dow climbed 0.32% to 43,408.47, the S&P 500 remained flat at 5,917.11, and the Nasdaq fell 0.11% to 18,966.14.
- Treasuries: Yields rose on Wednesday as global concerns subsided, and investors anticipated President-elect Donald Trump's selection for Treasury secretary. After falling on Tuesday because of Russia's choice to change its nuclear doctrine, yields went back up a little on Wednesday as traders looked at the US economy's prospects. The benchmark 10-year yield increased 2.7 basis points to 4.406% from 4.379% on Tuesday.
- Currency: The dollar rebounded after three straight sessions of losses amid rising tensions between Russia and the West. The dollar index increased 0.54% to 106.68 but remained below one-year highs. It is up roughly 3% since the general election in the United States on November 5. The dollar was last up 0.48% against the yen, trading at 155.40. The dollar was up 0.2% against the Swiss franc, trading at 0.88410.
Trading Trends
Traded volume(in Cr) in corporate bonds by sector and maturity:
| Sectors | 0-1y | 1-3y | 3-5y | 5-10y | >10y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBFC | 1952 | 975 | 354 | 359 | 160 |
| Financial Institution | 530 | 600 | 125 | 17 | - |
| Public Sector Bank | - | - | - | 210 | - |
| Telecom | - | 50 | 80 | 146 | - |
| Specialty Chemicals | 50 | 150 | - | - | - |
Secondary trade details for recently issued primary corporate bonds:
Security Name |
Issue Date |
Trades Since Issue(Cr) |
Avg Yield(%) |
LTY (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.70 FEDERAL BANK 11NOV34 | 2024-11-11 | 480 | 7.76 | 7.76 |
| 7.47 IIFCL 07NOV27 | 2024-11-07 | 290 | 7.47 | 7.47 |
| 11.00 GMR INFRA 13NOV27 | 2024-11-13 | 200 | 15.93 | 15.94 |
| 7.26 IIFCL 07NOV34 | 2024-11-07 | 195 | 7.26 | 7.26 |
| 7.15 IRFC 14NOV39 | 2024-11-13 | 160 | 7.15 | 7.16 |
| 8.90 BHARATI TELECOM 05NOV34 | 2024-11-05 | 145 | 8.60 | 8.56 |
| 8.90 BHARATI TELECOM 05NOV31 | 2024-11-05 | 140 | 8.68 | 8.58 |
| 8.03 POONAWALLA FINCROP 07NOV29 | 2024-11-07 | 108 | 8.02 | 7.95 |
| 9.45 OXYZO FINSERV 11NOV26 | 2024-11-11 | 90 | 9.90 | 10.50 |
| 8.75 BHARATI TELECOM 05NOV29 | 2024-11-05 | 75 | 8.62 | 8.56 |
| - AURORE LIFE SCIENCES PRIVATE LIMITED 05NOV28 | 2024-11-05 | 60 | 13.22 | 15.00 |
| 9.90 IKF FINANCE 15MAR27 | 2024-11-13 | 60 | 11.00 | 11.00 |
Source: Harmoney data analytics
Events This Week
November 21, Thursday:
- US Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report for Nov 16 week.
- US Weekly Export Sales.
- US Existing Home Sales for October.
- US Advance Quarterly Services for Q3.
November 22, Friday:
- US Flash Manufacturing PMI for November.
- US Flash Services PMI for November.
- India HSBC Composite PMI for November.
- India HSBC Manufacturing PMI for November.
- India HSBC Services PMI for November.
- India FX Reserves for Nov 11 week
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