The Economic Survey for 2023-24, which was presented to Parliament on Monday, urged the private sector to actively contribute to creating around eight million jobs each year until 2036. Companies should take prudence when depending significantly on capital-intensive technology like artificial intelligence to cut employment. The 522-page Survey by Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran and his colleagues makes a persuasive case for seeking Chinese FDI to boost domestic manufacturing and exports. While numerous worldwide organizations have upgraded their growth projections for India, it has set a more cautious 6.5-7.0% economic growth projection for 2024-25.
Top 3 Leads Today
- Economic Survey pegs FY25 GDP growth at 6.5-7.0%.
- Third-party dependency in digital lending has risks: RBI Rao.
- Govt says no decision to discontinue release of data on GST mop-up.
Indian Markets
- Money Markets Minute: The call money market rate closed above the RBI's repo rate of 6.50% due to strong demand for funds, driven by outflows for goods and services tax payments. The one-day call money rate closed at 6.55%, compared to 5.75% on Saturday for two-day loans. The weighted average call rate was 6.60%, up from 6.11% on Saturday.
- Government Bond Brief: Government bond yields trimmed their early rise as the market anticipated the government announcing a cut in the year’s market borrowing. Yields, however, closed tad higher. The 10-year paper closed at 6.97%, up from 6.96% on Friday. The turnover was ₹459.00 billion, compared with ₹424.40 billion on Friday.
- Corporate Bond Beat: Yields on corporate bonds remained steady as investors refrained from making significant bets ahead of the Union Budget for the fiscal year 2024-25. The government is anticipated to continue focusing on fiscal consolidation while also announcing measures to boost consumption demand in the economy.
- Forex Flash: After hitting a record low, the rupee closed steady against the dollar as the RBI intervened by selling the greenback. The Indian currency reached a lifetime low of 83.6750 per dollar but moved within a very narrow range of 4 paise, settling at 83.6575 per dollar. On Friday, the rupee had closed at 83.6625 per dollar.
- Stocks Spotlight: The benchmark indices ended lower for the second consecutive session due to selling in heavyweight stocks, as traders remained cautious ahead of the Union Budget announcements. Following weak global cues, the Indian Nifty50 index opened lower and slipped below 24,400. At close, the Sensex was down 0.10% at 80,525.22, and the Nifty was down 0.09% at 24,509.30.
International Markets
- US Stocks: All three benchmarks on Wall Street closed higher on Monday, with investors showing renewed interest in mega-cap growth stocks. The Dow Jones rebounded in positive territory after a brief decline. Mega-caps such as Alphabet, Meta Platforms, and Tesla all saw significant gains of between 2.2% and 5.1% after experiencing a downturn in the market last week. The Dow closed 0.32 higher,, S&P 500 index rose 1.08%, and Nasdaq gained 1.58%.
- Treasuries: Treasuries were little changed as markets assessed the uncertainty surrounding the White House contest, with 10-year yields up 1.7 basis points to 4.256%. Markets are completely pricing in a September Federal Reserve rate cut, boosting risk appetite. Investors in US treasuries revised their views on Republican Donald Trump's chances of winning a second term on Monday after President Joe Biden's exit, boosting Democrats.
- Currency: The dollar climbed slightly on Monday as investors processed President Joe Biden's re-election withdrawal, which could boost currency market volatility. After two days of gains, the dollar fell versus the yen, and the euro was up 0.07% at $1.0885. The dollar index rose 0.1% to 104.32 against a basket of currencies.
Trading Trends
Traded volume(in Cr) in corporate bonds by sector and maturity:
| Sectors | 0-1y | 1-3y | 3-5y | 5-10y | >10y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBFC | 344 | 938 | 644 | 251 | 1131 |
| Financial Institution | - | 106 | 1230 | 131 | - |
| Private Sector Bank | - | 450 | 0 | 502 | - |
| Housing Finance Company | - | 350 | 51 | 459 | - |
| Public Sector Bank | - | - | - | - | 100 |
Secondary trade details for recently issued primary corporate bonds:
Security Name |
Issue Date |
Trades Since Issue(Cr) |
Avg Yield(%) |
LTY (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.39 IRFC 15JUL34 | 2024-07-15 | 1165.00 | 7.40 | 7.40 |
| 7.36 SBI 11JUL39 | 2024-07-11 | 884.90 | 7.36 | 7.36 |
| 7.89 BAJAJ HFL 14JUL34 | 2024-07-15 | 460.00 | 7.88 | 7.88 |
| 7.92 TATA CAPITAL HFL 07JUL34 | 2024-07-08 | 420.00 | 7.92 | 7.91 |
| 8.71 HDB PERP 12JUL34 C | 2024-07-15 | 396.00 | 8.66 | 8.25 |
| 8.1701 ADITYA BIRLA HFL 25AUG27 | 2024-07-12 | 345.00 | 8.18 | 8.18 |
| 8.10 BAJAJ FINANCE 10JUL26 | 2024-07-10 | 310.00 | 8.09 | 8.05 |
| 8.1168 ADITYA BIRLA HFL 15MAY29 | 2024-07-12 | 275.00 | 8.12 | 8.12 |
| 7.36 IOCL 16JUL29 | 2024-07-16 | 235.10 | 7.34 | 7.35 |
| 8.00 TATAIND 17JUL26 | 2024-07-19 | 175.00 | 7.98 | 7.98 |
| 8.08 KMPL 21OCT27 | 2024-07-15 | 165.00 | 8.10 | 8.10 |
| 7.8650 LICHSGFIN 20AUG26 | 2024-07-12 | 160.00 | 7.87 | 7.86 |
| 7.98 BAJAJ HFL 09SEP26 | 2024-07-09 | 155.00 | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| 9.00 CHOLAINVFIN 09APR31 | 2024-07-15 | 105.00 | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| 8.20 TFSIN 16JUL29 | 2024-07-16 | 75.00 | 8.19 | 8.19 |
| 10.97 HELLAINFRA 08JAN26 | 2024-07-08 | 50.00 | 12.63 | 17.00 |
Source: Harmoney data analytics
Events This Week
July 23, Tuesday:
- US Existing home sales for June.
- US Money stock measures for June.
- India Finance Minister to present Union Budget for 2024-25.
July 24, Wednesday:
- US Services and manufacturing PMI for July.
- US New residential sales for June.
- US EIA weekly petroleum status report for Jul 19 week.
- India PMI for July
- India M3 Money Supply for Jul 12 week.
July 25, Thursday:
- US Advance estimate GDP for Q2.
- US Advance report on durable goods for June.
- US Unemployment insurance weekly claims report for Jul 20 week.
- US Weekly export sales.
July 26, Friday:
- US Personal income and outlays for June.
- India Bank loan growth Jul 12 week.
- India Deposit growth Jul 12 week.
- India Foreign exchange reserves Jul 19 week.
For any inquiries or assistance related to market data, please reach out to us at support@harmoney.in