Geopolitical tensions and uncertainty about major economies' trade policies are among the biggest dangers to India's economy, according to the government's monthly economic report released on Monday, which maintains the current growth outlook. Spillover from such risk variables may impair household confidence in India, influencing spending on durable goods in the world's fifth-largest economy, it added. India's government has projected economic growth of 6.5% to 7% for the current fiscal year, down from 8.2% the previous year, citing increased geopolitical concerns.
Top 3 Leads Today
- Fin min says headline CPI not most precise gauge of underlying demand lately.
- Slowdown in some areas offset by positives: RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das.
- India in cyclical slowdown, RBI's 7.2% estimate 'overly optimistic': Nomura.
Indian Markets
- Money Markets Minute: The call rate closed at the RBI’s 6.25% standing deposit facility rate as month-end government spending improved banking liquidity, reducing banks' funding demand. It ended at 6.25%, up from 5.95% for three-day loans on Friday, with the weighted average call rate slightly higher at 6.62% versus 6.61% on Friday.
- Government Bond Brief: Yields rose as the 10-year US Treasury yield hit 4.30%, its highest since July 11. The 10-year benchmark 7.10%, 2034 bond closed at a 6.87% yield, up from 6.85% on Friday. Market turnover was ₹399.85 billion, slightly down from ₹404.85 billion on Friday.
- Corporate Bond Beat: Yields on three- and five-year corporate bonds rose 2-3 basis points in the secondary market due to bank and mutual fund selling, while 10-year yields held steady. Exchange deals totalled ₹74.19 billion, up from ₹59.02 billion on Friday.
- Forex Flash: The rupee remained unchanged, marking its seventh consecutive stable close against the dollar as likely RBI-driven bank sales balanced pressures from a stronger dollar index. It ended at 84.0775 per dollar, slightly up from Friday's 84.0800.
- Stocks Spotlight: Indices ended a five-day losing streak, closing in the green as strong bank earnings and a dip in global crude prices eased investor concerns. The Nifty 50 rose 0.7% to 24,339.15, and the Sensex climbed 0.8% to 80,005.04.
International Markets
- US Stocks: On Monday, Wall Street ended higher, getting ready for a busy week of earnings reports from mega cap companies and the last few weeks before the Nov. 5 presidential election. Investors also felt better after the weekend events in the Middle East did not affect energy supplies. The S&P 500 rose 0.27% to 5,823.52, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.26% to 18,567.19. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.65% to 42,387.57.
- Treasuries: The benchmark 10-year US treasury yields rose to a three-month high ahead of US data to be announced and the election on November 5. Bets on Donald Trump winning the presidency pushed up treasury yields in anticipation of policies that may delay interest rate decreases. The 10-year treasuries rose by 4 basis points to 4.28% on Monday. Investors will also closely watch the US job report to be released this Friday.
- Currency: The dollar was poised for its highest monthly gain in two and a half years against a basket of major currencies, fuelled by signals of strength in the US economy. The US dollar index rose 3.6% to 104.46 in October, the highest monthly increase since April 2022. The yen fell to three-month lows versus the dollar on Monday, remaining under pressure as Japan's ruling coalition's election setback deepens political and monetary policy uncertainty.
Trading Trends
Secondary trade details for recently issued primary corporate bonds:
Security Name |
Issue Date |
Trades Since Issue(Cr) |
Avg Yield(%) |
LTY (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.98 SBI PERP 24OCT34 C | 2024-10-24 | 219 | 7.97 | 7.97 |
| 7.7120 TCHFL 14JAN28 | 2024-10-16 | 125 | 7.73 | 7.73 |
| 7.43 JUPL 24OCT34 | 2024-10-24 | 100 | 7.43 | 7.43 |
| 7.9610 HDB FINANCE 05JAN28 | 2024-10-14 | 68 | 7.96 | 7.96 |
| 7.99 MANKIND PHARMA LIMITED 16OCT2026 | 2024-10-16 | 50 | 7.90 | 7.90 |
Source: Harmoney data analytics
Events This Week
October 29, Tuesday:
- US Monthly house price index for August.
- US CCI for October.
- US Q3 Housing vacancies.
October 30, Wednesday:
- US Q3 Advance estimate GDP.
- US Pending home sales index for September.
- US Metropolitan area employment and unemployment for September.
- India Infrastructure output for September.
- India M3 Money supply for Oct 18 week.
October 31, Thursday:
- US Q3 Employment cost index.
- US Weekly export sales.
- US Unemployment insurance weekly claims report for Oct 26 week.
- US Agricultural prices for September.
- India Federal fiscal deficit for September.
- India RBI Monetary and credit information review.
- India Infrastructure output for September.
November 1, Friday:
- US Employment report for October.
- US Manufacturing PMI for October.
- US Construction spending for September.
- India NSE, BSE to conduct the Diwali Muhurat trading session at 1800 IST.
- India S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for October.
- India Bank Loan Growth for Oct 18 week.
- India Deposit growth for Oct 18 week.
- India FX Reserves for Oct 25 week.
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