The government projects that its debt, which includes external borrowing, valued at the current exchange rate, as well as public account and other liabilities, will rise to ₹185 trillion, equivalent to 56.8% of the GDP, in the current fiscal year. In a written reply to the Lok Sabha on Monday, Minister of State for Finance Pankaj Chaudhary revealed that the total debt at the end of March 2024 was ₹171.78 trillion, which accounted for 58.2% of the GDP. According to the International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook in April 2024, India's GDP at current prices has already reached $3.57 trillion in 2023-24, he stated.
Top 3 Leads Today
- More digital interconnectedness may cause systemic risks, says RBI Das.
- Innovations in payment systems can impact price stability: RBI report.
- SEBI mulls expanding scope of connected persons for insider trading.
Indian Markets
- Money Markets Minute: The call money market rate ended below the Reserve Bank of India's standing deposit facility rate of 6.25% due to an increased liquidity surplus in the banking system. The one-day call money rate closed at 6.25%, up from 5.75% on Friday for three-day loans. The weighted average call rate remained unchanged at 6.48%.
- Government Bond Brief: Government bond yields fell due to a decline in US Treasury yields, driven by inflation data bolstering hopes of a US Federal Reserve rate cut in September. The 10-year benchmark 7.10% 2034 bond closed at a yield of 6.92%, the lowest in nearly 28 months, down from 6.94% on Friday. Turnover decreased to ₹879.50 billion from ₹966.20 billion on Friday.
- Corporate Bond Beat: Yields on corporate bonds ended flat in the secondary market, with participants staying on the sidelines due to a lack of significant triggers. In the primary market, bond deals totalled over ₹61 billion.
- Forex Flash: The rupee ended unchanged at 83.7275 per dollar, as the Reserve Bank of India sold dollars to counter downward pressure from importers' demand. After fluctuating within a narrow range of 4 paise, it settled at the same level as Friday's close.
- Stocks Spotlight: The Nifty 50 closed nearly flat, just two points above its previous close at 24,836.10, after hitting a record high of 24,999.75. The Sensex also ended largely unchanged at 81,355.84, after reaching a lifetime high of 81,908.43, as investors booked profits. Early sharp gains were driven by a rally in global peers and strong earnings from select major companies.
International Markets
- US Stocks: The benchmark indices ended mixed, with the S&P and Nasdaq indices up 0.08% and 0.07%, respectively, but the Dow Jones fell 0.12% on Monday as investors look for technology company earnings, a Federal Reserve policy decision, and US employment data this week. Apple, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon's quarterly results, which are set to be reported this week, will provide insight into the market's future trajectory.
- Treasuries: US treasury yields fell on Monday, with market participants waiting on a trio of central bank meetings that might see the United States and Britain open the door to interest rate reduction, while Japan's central bank is expected to boost rates this week. The yield on benchmark US 10-year yields declined 3 basis points to 4.171%, marking a more than one-week low.
- Currency: The US dollar remained firm on Monday as traders await an array of midweek policy decisions from the US Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, and Bank of England this week. On Monday, the dollar index increased 0.18% to 104.56 versus the Japanese yen, while the euro fell 0.33% to $1.0821 against the US dollar.
Trading Trends
Traded volume(in Cr) in corporate bonds by sector and maturity:
| Sectors | 0-1y | 1-3y | 3-5y | 5-10y | >10y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financial Institution | 85 | 925 | 2471 | 311 | 45 |
| NBFC | 330 | 675 | 433 | 173 | 104 |
| Private Sector Bank | 1005 | 100 | - | 206 | - |
| Housing Finance Company | 270 | 202 | 184 | 53 | - |
| Power - Transmission | - | 200 | 100 | 260 | - |
Secondary trade details for recently issued primary corporate bonds:
Security Name |
Issue Date |
Trades Since Issue(Cr) |
Avg Yield(%) |
LTY (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.39 IRFC 15JUL34 | 2024-07-15 | 1415.00 | 7.40 | 7.39 |
| 7.89 BAJAJ HFL 14JUL34 | 2024-07-15 | 1090.00 | 7.88 | 7.87 |
| 7.54 BOI 19JUL34 | 2024-07-19 | 940.00 | 7.55 | 7.55 |
| 7.40 CANARA BANK 19JUL34 | 2024-07-19 | 545.00 | 7.39 | 7.38 |
| 8.00 TATAIND 21JUL25 C 17JUL26 M | 2024-07-19 | 420.00 | 7.96 | 7.87 |
| 8.71 HDB PERP 12JUL34 C | 2024-07-15 | 406.00 | 8.65 | 8.51 |
| 8.01 TATACAPITAL 21JUL34 | 2024-07-23 | 344.00 | 8.00 | 7.99 |
| 8.60 GODREJFINLTD 25NOV27 | 2024-07-25 | 250.00 | 8.65 | 8.66 |
| 7.36 IOCL 16JUL29 | 2024-07-16 | 235.10 | 7.34 | 7.35 |
| 8.20 TFSIN 16JUL29 | 2024-07-16 | 165.00 | 8.19 | 8.19 |
| 8.08 KMPL 21OCT27 | 2024-07-15 | 165.00 | 8.10 | 8.10 |
| 9.00 CHOLAINVFIN 09APR31 | 2024-07-15 | 110.00 | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| 7.39 IREDALTD 24JUL34 C 22JUL39 M | 2024-07-24 | 85.00 | 7.37 | 7.38 |
| 9.75 INDIABULLS HOUSING 23JUL29 | 2024-07-23 | 62.00 | 11.01 | 11.01 |
| 8.97 MUTHOOT FINANCE 18JAN27 | 2024-07-18 | 50.00 | 8.91 | 8.85 |
Source: Harmoney data analytics
Events This Week
July 30, Tuesday:
- US Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
- US Monthly House Price Index for May.
- US Consumer Confidence Index for July.
- US Housing Vacancies for Q2.
July 31, Wednesday:
- US Interest rate decision.
- US Employment Cost Index for Q2.
- US Pending Home Sales Index for June.
- US EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report for Jul 26 week.
- US Agricultural Prices for June.
- India Fiscal Deficit for June.
- India RBI Monetary and Credit Information Review.
- India Infrastructure Output for June.
August 1, Thursday:
- US Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report for Jul 27 week.
- US Weekly Export Sales
- US Manufacturing PMI for July.
- US Global Manufacturing PMI for July.
- US Domestic Auto Industry Sales for July.
- India Global Manufacturing PMI for July.
August 2, Friday:
- US Employment Report for July.
- US Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders for June.
- India FX Reserves for Jul 22 week.
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